Insights | October 2007 | AMS Planning & Research Corp.

The Impact of Shifting Demographics
by Lynette Turner

In a recent white paper written by AMS staff entitled, Arts and Culture - An Environmental Survey, a number of driving forces impacting arts and cultural institutions were examined. One of these areas is shifting demographics and an examination of how changes in our population composition may well play a role in how arts organizations and facilities operate.

Rapid Growth: Current population estimates state that the national population is projected to increase to 420 million by 2050, an increase of 49% from 2000 (see this table for details, taken from U.S. Census Bureau, 2004, “U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin”).

Cultural Diversity: The diversity of our communities is also increasing rapidly, a fact that is hard to ignore simply because of its shear magnitude. As Figure 1 shows, the Black population will increase from 13% of the population to 15% by 2050; the Asian population from 4% to 8%; the Hispanic population from 13% to 24%; and other races (including American Indian, Alaskan Native, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander) from 3% to 5%. However, the White population (excluding Hispanic) is projected to decrease from 70% to 50% of the population, a reduction of 20%. This is significant for arts organizations to note because the majority of traditional arts audiences have been White. The question arises, how do we diversify our programs and services, and thereby our audience base to attract and serve the increasingly diverse population?

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Generational Differences: According to David Stillman, co-author of the book, When Generations Collide: Who They Are. Why They Clash. How to Solve the Generational Puzzle at Work, the four main generation groups worth noting are Traditionalists (62 to 82 years), Baby Boomers (43 to 61 years), Generation X'ers (27 to 42 years) and Millennials (5 to 26 years). In general, different age groups appreciate different kinds of art. Research examining tastes, standards and attractions for each generation, in particular Gen-Xers and Millennials, will be important in generating new audiences and maintaining relevant programming. How do we create strategies to connect with these markets?

These demographic projections offer a basis for short and long-term planning to incorporate these diverse groups into the fabric of our arts and cultural communities. Those working with or for arts institutions will have to find ways to embrace new and different populations, particularly if their goals involve creating programs to attract local communities, expanding to new audiences, and creating dialogue across diverse populations. Opportunities for engagement with diverse communities should also include involvement at the Board, staff, and volunteer levels. An all-inclusive approach will go a long way towards creating sustainable relationships between arts and cultural organizations and a broader, increasingly diverse community of arts participants.

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